Newsletter Edition #392 [The Files In-Depth]
Readers,
Political swings in elections are so widespread across countries that it has been normalized in the last few decades across the biggest countries in the world. But even so, some are more significant than others.
My colleague Bianca Carvalho maps the deep shifts in the Brazilian elections that will reach a culmination later this month. Either way, it will have significant implications for global health and trade, given the influence of Brazil in global politics. Carvalho, who has written for us over the years, draws the spectre of a Bolsonaro presidency, again.
We hope you find this urgent and important story timely and cautionary.
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I. THE FILES ANALYSIS
Brazil at Crossroads: What a Flávio Bolsonaro Presidency Could Mean for Global Health
By Bianca Carvalho
Carvalho is a fellow at Fiocruz, a public health research institution in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. At Fiocruz, she works with the Executive Secretariat of the Global Coalition for Local and Regional Production, Innovation and Equitable Access. She holds a Master’s degree in Global Health from the Geneva Graduate Institute. She is also a writer for Geneva Health Files.
On October 4, 2026, the eyes of the world turned to Brazil with many watching apprehensively to see which direction the country would take. Brazilians voted to elect members of Congress, the Senate, state governors, and the next president in a highly polarized race between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL).
The results showed a strong shift towards the right, with many candidates aligned with Flávio Bolsonaro winning seats in Congress and the Senate, as well as governorships across the country. A presidential runoff on October 25 will determine who will serve as Brazil’s next president.
Flávio Bolsonaro is a businessman, lawyer, and politician with more than two decades of public life, second best known as the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted and imprisoned following his involvement in an attempted coup after losing the 2022 presidential elections in Brazil.
Historically, Brazil is recognized by its influence in Latin America, in opposition to the United States. The results of the elections will help determine whether Brazil continues to be an important player in multilateralism or will become submissive to the will of U.S. President Donald Trump.
